LyondellBasell LYB
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest producers of polymers, plastics, and chemical products, with an integrated business model ranging from crude oil refining to the manufacture of advanced compounds. LyondellBasell trades at a forward P/E of 9.42 and a FCF yield of 6.34%, but its financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 3.27) and its payout ratio of 1146% is unsustainable. The 396% earnings growth is a peak-cycle mirage that will likely reverse.
Detailed metrics
Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.
Full AI report
Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest producers of polymers, plastics, and chemical products, with an integrated business model ranging from crude oil refining to the manufacture of advanced compounds. LyondellBasell trades at a forward P/E of 9.42 and a FCF yield of 6.34%, but its financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 3.27) and its payout ratio of 1146% is unsustainable. The 396% earnings growth is a peak-cycle mirage that will likely reverse.
Score by category
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Financial health | 5.0 |
| Quality / Moat | 4.4 |
| Valuation | 5.0 |
| Growth | 7.2 |
| Dividend | 3.7 |
| Momentum | 7.8 |
| Risk & Context | 8.5 |
OVERALL SCORE: 5.7/10
Context and risks
The rise in crude oil and the blockade of Hormuz raise the cost of LYB's key raw material, compressing its refining and petrochemical margins. The company has a cost advantage from access to cheap US natural gas, but crude exposure is a material risk to its integrated business.
News considered in the analysis
- These 6 High-Yield Dividends May Be Too Good to Be True — Artículo genérico sobre sostenibilidad de dividendos; el payout de LYB es insosteniblemente alto (1146%), lo que añade algo de credibilidad a la advertencia, pero no es información específica nueva.
- 3 US Chemical Stocks With A Natural Gas Cost Edge — Destaca la ventaja competitiva de LYB por su acceso a gas natural barato en EE.UU., un factor clave para su margen en un entorno de energía cara.
- LyondellBasell (LYB) Retraces Amid Shifting Commodity Sentiment — Señala la debilidad reciente de la acción por el cambio de sentimiento en materias primas, coherente con su posición en el percentil 43% del rango de 52 semanas.
- How Is LyondellBasell Industries’ Stock Performance Compared to Other Industrial Stocks? — Comparativa genérica sin información nueva.
- 3 of the Most Resilient High-Yield Dividend Stocks in the Chemical Sector: A Safety Deep Dive — Reconoce a LYB como uno de los valores de alto dividendo más resilientes del sector químico, un factor positivo que contrasta con la advertencia sobre la sostenibilidad del dividendo.
Verdict: Hold, but with caution. The cheap valuation does not compensate for the high leverage, unsustainable dividend, and exposure to a chemical cycle that is at its peak.
Main risk: The main risk is the combination of high leverage (ND/EBITDA 3.27) and a 1146% payout ratio, leaving the dividend and balance sheet highly vulnerable to a normalization of earnings from their current cyclical peak.
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