Vistra VST
Vistra Corp. is an electric power generation company that operates natural gas, nuclear, and solar plants, selling electricity to wholesale and retail markets in the United States. Vistra is a utility with high leverage (ND/EBITDA 3.02) and negative growth (revenue -5.5%), although its ROE of 42.96% is notable. The AI data center contract is a catalyst, but rising rates and weak momentum (score 2.45) weigh on valuation.
Detailed metrics
Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.
Full AI report
Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.
Vistra Corp. is an electric power generation company that operates natural gas, nuclear, and solar plants, selling electricity to wholesale and retail markets in the United States. Vistra is a utility with high leverage (ND/EBITDA 3.02) and negative growth (revenue -5.5%), although its ROE of 42.96% is notable. The AI data center contract is a catalyst, but rising rates and weak momentum (score 2.45) weigh on valuation.
Score by category
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Financial health | 5.4 |
| Quality / Moat | 5.3 |
| Valuation | 3.8 |
| Growth | 2.4 |
| Dividend | 3.8 |
| Momentum | 2.5 |
| Risk & Context | 3.8 |
OVERALL SCORE: 4.2/10
Context and risks
The oil rally and 10-year yield rise (5.17%) pressure financing costs and the present value of a utility's cash flows with high debt (ND/EBITDA 3.02). Geopolitical stalemate with Iran adds regulatory uncertainty on energy prices.
News considered in the analysis
- Vistra Stock Is Down 31% Over the Last Year. Is It Time to Buy the Dip? — Artículo de opinión sobre si comprar la caída; sin información nueva sobre la empresa.
- Constellation vs. Vistra: Which AI Power Stock Is the Better Buy? — Comparativa genérica entre dos compañías; sin datos concretos de Vistra.
- VST Keeps Writing Checks To Its Shareholders — Confirma el compromiso con el dividendo, aunque la rentabilidad es baja (0.66%).
- Power Play: Vistra Powers New Era’s AI Data Center Deal — Contrato para suministrar energía a un centro de datos de IA; material y alineado con la demanda de electricidad.
- Energy Transition Update - Fashion Industry Joins Forces For Renewable Energy Revolution — Noticia sectorial genérica sobre energías renovables; sin impacto directo en Vistra.
Verdict: Hold; wait for debt to stabilize and growth to turn positive before adding.
Main risk: High leverage (ND/EBITDA 3.02) and exposure to rising interest rates, which increase debt costs and pressure the valuation of long-term cash flows.
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