AAON AAON
United StatesIndustrials · Building Products & EquipmentUSD
134.75 USD (+54.7%)
4 analysts
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AAON, Inc. designs and manufactures HVAC equipment for commercial and industrial buildings, including rooftop units, air handling units, and energy recovery systems, sold primarily in North America.
Key points
from its scores- ✓Strong growth9.5
- ✓Very solid balance sheet7.0
- ✕Demanding valuation2.0
- ✕Poor share-price trend2.0
- ✕Little or no dividend4.2
AI analysis
bottom line, main risk, context and newsCurrent growth does not justify the 45.86 P/E with negative cash conversion; wait for the multiple to normalize or for the construction cycle to show signs of stabilization before entering.
AAON shows spectacular growth (revenue +101.2%, earnings +257.9%) that has pushed its P/E to 45.86, but free cash flow conversion is negative (-71.24%) and the 10.99% operating margin does not support the multiple. The balance sheet is healthy (ND/EBITDA 1.51), but the valuation discounts a cycle peak that is likely unsustainable.
The main risk is the sustainability of growth: with revenue and earnings growing at triple digits in a cyclical sector, a cooling of commercial construction demand or a normalization of the cycle could trigger a sharp correction in the multiple (P/E 45.86) and the stock price.
Context and risks
AAON has no material exposure to current macro factors: its commercial HVAC equipment business does not depend on oil, European gas, or conflict-affected shipping routes. The rise in long-term US rates is a market factor already reflected in its valuation multiple, but it does not alter its operational or regulatory risk profile.
Is AAON stock cheap or expensive?
at the analysis dateOn P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 78% above the Industrials median on average.
| Multiple | Company | Sector | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 45.9 | 25.4 | +80% |
| EV / EBITDA | 25.4 | 14.5 | +76% |
| Price / book | 7.1 | 4.1 | +75% |
| Price / sales | 3.7 | 2.1 | +81% |
Sector: median of the 388 Industrials companies analysed. In bold, the multiples used for the comparison.
Valuation score: 2.0 out of 10 (median for Industrials: 5.0).
Average analyst target: 134.75 USD, +54.7% versus the price.
A premium can be justified if the company is of higher quality or grows faster than its sector: Quality / Moat 4.6 (sector 5.8), Growth 9.5 (sector 6.6).
Classic formulas with standard assumptions (10.0% growth, 8-9% discount rate). Indicative only: they change a lot with the assumptions and are not a recommendation.
Work out its fair value yourself →How much would you have made investing every month? →
Comparing it with its sector does not say whether it is a good buy: this is not investment advice.
Score by category
0 to 10 · hover overtap each one to see what it measuresKey metrics
at the analysis date · compared with the Industrials medianValuation
- P/E
- 45.9
- Forward P/E
- 24.9
- EV / EBITDA
- 25.4
- Price / book
- 7.1
- Price / sales
- 3.7
- PEG
- 1.01
- Market cap
- 7.2B USD
- Enterprise value
- 7.6B USD
Profitability
- ROE
- 17.3%
- ROA
- 8.2%
- ROIC (approx.)
- 14.5%
- Gross margin
- 25.6%
- Operating margin
- 11.0%
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- Free cash flow
- −213.8M USD
- FCF yield
- −3.0%
- Cash conversion
- −71%
Solvency
- Total debt
- 452.1M USD
- Net debt
- 452.1M USD
- Cash
- 13,000 USD
- EBITDA
- 300.1M USD
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.51
- Debt / equity
- 44.74
- Current ratio
- 3.01
- Quick ratio
- 1.93
Growth
- Revenue growth
- +101.2%
- Earnings growth
- +257.9%
- EPS (TTM)
- 1.90 USD
- EPS (forward)
- 3.50 USD
Dividend
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
- Payout
- 21.0%
Risk and market
- Beta
- 1.41
- Analyst consensus
- Strong buy (4)
- Target price
- 134.75 USD
- 52-week range
- 73.19 – 150.46
Recent news
All AAON news →Compare it with its sector
All 388 in Industrials →Frequently asked questions about AAON
Is AAON stock cheap or expensive?
On P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 78% above the Industrials median on average. Valuation score: 2.0 out of 10 (median for Industrials: 5.0). Average analyst target: 134.75 USD, +54.7% versus the price. This is not investment advice.
What score does AAON get on MeridIAn Screener?
It scores 4.6 out of 10, rank 1,831 of 2,130 (better than 13% of the companies analysed). Its strongest category is Growth (9.5) and its weakest, Valuation (2.0). Analysis of 08/10/2026.
What is AAON's P/E ratio?
Its P/E is 45.9: the share price equals 45.9 times earnings per share over the last 12 months. The Industrials median is 25.4. Based on the earnings analysts expect, the forward P/E is 24.9.
How much is AAON worth on the stock market?
Its market capitalisation is 7.2B USD and its enterprise value, debt included, is 7.6B USD.
How much debt does AAON have?
Its net debt (debt minus cash) is 452.1M USD. That is 1.51 times its EBITDA; the Industrials median is 1.58.
Does AAON pay a dividend?
Yes: its dividend yield is 0.46% and it pays out 21% of its earnings.
How has AAON stock performed over the last year?
It has fallen 12.1% over the last year, excluding dividends. Over the last 52 weeks it has traded between 73.19 and 150.46 USD. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What do analysts think of AAON?
4 analysts cover it; their average recommendation is “Strong buy” and their average target is 134.75 USD (+54.7% versus the price). It is an estimate, not market data.