HF Sinclair DINO
United StatesEnergy · Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingUSD
106.47 USD (−7.9%)
15 analysts
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HF Sinclair Corporation is an independent U.S.-based oil refiner and marketer that refines crude oil and sells gasoline, diesel and other products, also operating a network of gas stations and lubricants and chemicals businesses.
Key points
from its scores- ✓Good share-price trend9.6
- ✓Attractive valuation7.7
- ✓Very solid balance sheet7.4
- !Modest dividend5.3
AI analysis
bottom line, main risk, context and newsQuality and valuation are good, but current earnings are at cycle highs and the risk of refining margin reversal is high.
HF Sinclair shows solid fundamentals: a clean balance sheet (ND/EBITDA 0.34), high profitability (ROIC 26.80%) and an attractive valuation (EV/EBITDA 6.77, FCF yield 9.90%). However, 350% earnings growth and an 11.69% operating margin reflect a refining cycle peak, with reversal risk if the geopolitical crude premium deflates.
The biggest risk is refining margin reversal: record earnings depend on a high-Brent, blocked-Strait-of-Hormuz backdrop that can deflate within days, compressing the 11.69% operating margin and 350% growth.
Context and risks
HF Sinclair is an independent refiner with an exceptionally high refining margin (11.69% operating margin) in a context of elevated Brent and a blocked Strait of Hormuz. The crude risk premium is asymmetric: a sudden deal could crash prices and compress margins abruptly, as already happened on March 16. This fast-reversal risk is not captured by financial metrics.
Is HF Sinclair stock cheap or expensive?
at the analysis dateOn P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 23% below the Energy median on average.
| Multiple | Company | Sector | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.0 | 15.7 | −30% |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.8 | 8.0 | −16% |
| Price / book | 2.0 | 2.2 | −11% |
| Price / sales | 0.7 | 1.9 | −66% |
Sector: median of the 102 Energy companies analysed. In bold, the multiples used for the comparison.
Valuation score: 7.7 out of 10 (median for Energy: 5.9).
Average analyst target: 106.47 USD, −7.9% versus the price.
A discount may reflect more risk or slower growth than its sector: Financial health 7.4 (sector 6.8), Growth 7.1 (sector 7.2).
Classic formulas with standard assumptions (10.0% growth, 8-9% discount rate). Indicative only: they change a lot with the assumptions and are not a recommendation.
Work out its fair value yourself →How much would you have made investing every month? →
Comparing it with its sector does not say whether it is a good buy: this is not investment advice.
Score by category
0 to 10 · hover overtap each one to see what it measuresKey metrics
at the analysis date · compared with the Energy medianValuation
- P/E
- 11.0
- Forward P/E
- 8.7
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.8
- Price / book
- 2.0
- Price / sales
- 0.7
- PEG
- 1.22
- Market cap
- 20.6B USD
- Enterprise value
- 21.7B USD
Profitability
- ROE
- 19.5%
- ROA
- 9.2%
- ROIC (approx.)
- 26.8%
- Gross margin
- 12.9%
- Operating margin
- 11.7%
- Net margin
- 6.1%
- Free cash flow
- 2.0B USD
- FCF yield
- 9.9%
- Cash conversion
- 63%
Solvency
- Total debt
- 3.3B USD
- Net debt
- 1.1B USD
- Cash
- 2.3B USD
- EBITDA
- 3.2B USD
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.34
- Debt / equity
- 32.26
- Current ratio
- 1.97
- Quick ratio
- 1.07
Growth
- Revenue growth
- +53.2%
- Earnings growth
- +350.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- 10.50 USD
- EPS (forward)
- 13.22 USD
Dividend
- Dividend yield
- 1.8%
- Payout
- 19.0%
Risk and market
- Beta
- 0.71
- Analyst consensus
- Hold (15)
- Target price
- 106.47 USD
- 52-week range
- 45.71 – 118.39
Recent news
All DINO news →Compare it with its sector
All 102 in Energy →Frequently asked questions about HF Sinclair
Is HF Sinclair stock cheap or expensive?
On P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 23% below the Energy median on average. Valuation score: 7.7 out of 10 (median for Energy: 5.9). Average analyst target: 106.47 USD, −7.9% versus the price. This is not investment advice.
What score does HF Sinclair get on MeridIAn Screener?
It scores 7.2 out of 10, rank 128 of 2,130 (better than 93% of the companies analysed). Its strongest category is Momentum (9.6) and its weakest, Dividend (5.3). Analysis of 08/10/2026.
What is HF Sinclair's P/E ratio?
Its P/E is 11.0: the share price equals 11.0 times earnings per share over the last 12 months. The Energy median is 15.7. Based on the earnings analysts expect, the forward P/E is 8.7.
How much is HF Sinclair worth on the stock market?
Its market capitalisation is 20.6B USD and its enterprise value, debt included, is 21.7B USD.
How much debt does HF Sinclair have?
Its net debt (debt minus cash) is 1.1B USD. That is 0.34 times its EBITDA; the Energy median is 1.23.
Does HF Sinclair pay a dividend?
Yes: its dividend yield is 1.82% and it pays out 19% of its earnings.
How has HF Sinclair stock performed over the last year?
It has risen 136.0% over the last year, excluding dividends. Over the last 52 weeks it has traded between 45.71 and 118.39 USD. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What do analysts think of HF Sinclair?
15 analysts cover it; their average recommendation is “Hold” and their average target is 106.47 USD (−7.9% versus the price). It is an estimate, not market data.