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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Packaging Corporation of America PKG

United States Consumer Cyclical
5.7/10
AI Analyst score
237.18 USD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 259.30 (+9.3%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; wait for the earnings decline to reverse and cash conversion to improve before considering an entry.

Packaging Corporation of America is an integrated producer of paper and corrugated cardboard packaging, operating paper mills and conversion plants to serve industrial and consumer clients in the United States. Packaging Corporation of America shows solid financial health (ND/EBITDA of 1.91, liquidity of 2.94) and revenue growth of 14.7%, but the decline in earnings (-19.5%) and weak cash conversion (21.65%) hurt its quality and growth, leaving the valuation (P/E 30.76) demanding.

Financial health
6.7
Quality / Moat
4.7
Valuation
5.5
Growth
4.5
Dividend
6.5
Momentum
5.8
Risk & Context
7.4

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E30.76
Fwd P/E18.08
EV/EBITDA12.41
P/B4.51
P/S2.22
PEG1.52
Market cap21.13 B USD
Enterprise value24.81 B USD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)13.8%
Gross margin21.39%
FCF conversion22%
Operating margin13.12%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE14.89%
ROA8.28%
Net margin7.26%
FCF433.0 M USD
FCF yield2.05%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt4.40 B USD
Net debt3.81 B USD
Cash593.8 M USD
EBITDA2.00 B USD
Net debt / EBITDA1.91
D/E94.47
Current ratio2.94
Quick ratio1.77
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth14.70%
Earnings growth-19.50%
EPS (TTM)7.71 USD
EPS (Fwd)13.12 USD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield2.53%
Payout68.2%
Beta0.80
Analyst consensusBuy (10)
Target price259.30 USD
52-week range191.50 USD – 259.98 USD
⚠️ Main risk: The weak conversion of earnings to free cash flow (21.65%) and negative earnings growth (-19.5%) suggest the business may be facing cost or demand pressures that could prove non-temporary.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Packaging Corporation of America is an integrated producer of paper and corrugated cardboard packaging, operating paper mills and conversion plants to serve industrial and consumer clients in the United States. Packaging Corporation of America shows solid financial health (ND/EBITDA of 1.91, liquidity of 2.94) and revenue growth of 14.7%, but the decline in earnings (-19.5%) and weak cash conversion (21.65%) hurt its quality and growth, leaving the valuation (P/E 30.76) demanding.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health6.7
Quality / Moat4.7
Valuation5.5
Growth4.5
Dividend6.5
Momentum5.8
Risk & Context7.4

OVERALL SCORE: 5.7/10

Context and risks

No material exposure to relevant macro factors (oil, rates, geopolitics). The paper packaging business is oriented to the domestic US market and its industrial consumption, without dependence on conflict maritime routes or energy commodities.

News considered in the analysis

  • 2 Unpopular Stocks That Should Get More Attention and 1 We Avoid — Listículo sin información nueva sobre la empresa.
  • 3 Profitable Stocks We Steer Clear Of — Opinión genérica sin datos concretos que afecten a la valoración.
  • Is Smurfit Westrock Set to Gain From Its Recent Portfolio Actions? — Noticia sobre un competidor, sin impacto directo en PKG.
  • What Happens to Your IP Dividend When the Split Closes — Noticia sobre International Paper, no sobre PKG.
  • Is Packaging Corporation Underperforming the Nasdaq? — Comparativa de rendimiento sin información fundamental nueva.

Verdict: Hold; wait for the earnings decline to reverse and cash conversion to improve before considering an entry.

Main risk: The weak conversion of earnings to free cash flow (21.65%) and negative earnings growth (-19.5%) suggest the business may be facing cost or demand pressures that could prove non-temporary.

Other Consumer Cyclical companies

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.