Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant chain offering customizable Mexican cuisine, with a business model focused on fresh ingredients and efficient service. Chipotle maintains exceptional quality (ROE 49.56%, ROIC 26.28%) and 9.30% revenue growth, but profit is declining -1.30% and share buybacks are masking a 5% profit decline, questioning the sustainability of the multiple (P/E 29.01).
Detailed metrics
Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.
Full AI report
Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.
Chipotle Mexican Grill is a fast-casual restaurant chain offering customizable Mexican cuisine, with a business model focused on fresh ingredients and efficient service. Chipotle maintains exceptional quality (ROE 49.56%, ROIC 26.28%) and 9.30% revenue growth, but profit is declining -1.30% and share buybacks are masking a 5% profit decline, questioning the sustainability of the multiple (P/E 29.01).
Score by category
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Financial health | 5.5 |
| Quality / Moat | 7.7 |
| Valuation | 4.7 |
| Growth | 5.1 |
| Dividend | 1.5 |
| Momentum | 4.0 |
| Risk & Context | 6.7 |
OVERALL SCORE: 5.6/10
Context and risks
The macro context (rates, oil, geopolitics) does not materially affect Chipotle's business. It is a consumer discretionary company with moderate debt (ND/EBITDA 2.08) and no direct exposure to commodities, energy, or shipping routes. The oil rally is not a relevant factor for its cost structure.
News considered in the analysis
- Chipotle Stock: Here’s the Truth About the 2026 Buybacks That are Quietly Masking a 5% Profit Decline — Noticia material: revela que los beneficios están cayendo un 5% y que las recompras de acciones están ocultando el deterioro subyacente del negocio. El mercado puede no haber descontado plenamente la magnitud de la caída.
- Why Did Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Add A Global Restaurant Veteran To Its Board? — Nombramiento de un consejero con experiencia global en restauración, señal moderadamente positiva de gobierno corporativo, pero sin impacto cuantificable en beneficios a corto plazo.
- Cava Stock Is Too Tasty to Pass Up — Artículo sobre un competidor (Cava), no aporta información nueva sobre Chipotle.
- Your McDonald's Stock Thesis Has One Loose End — Análisis sobre McDonald's, sin relevancia directa para Chipotle.
- One Reason McDonald's Stock Looks Better Than Its Price — Análisis sobre McDonald's, sin relevancia directa para Chipotle.
Verdict: Hold, but closely monitor margin evolution; business quality is high, but profit deterioration and demanding valuation limit upside potential.
Main risk: The main risk is that the profit decline (-1.30%) is not temporary and that share buybacks are masking a structural business deterioration, which would lead to a multiple correction (P/E 29.01).
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