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Phillips 66 PSX

United States Energy
6.4/10
AI Analyst score
255.75 USD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 251.95 (-1.5%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold, with caution. The business is solid, but peak refining margins and regulatory risks limit upside potential.

Phillips 66 is an integrated energy company operating in oil refining, marketing of refined products, and midstream logistics, generating revenue from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petrochemical products. Phillips 66 shows strong momentum (80.15) and solid quality (ROE 23.45%), but its 344.9% earnings growth reflects a refining cycle peak that is not sustainable. Valuation is reasonable (P/E 14.60), although the rate environment and potential diesel export ban add risks.

Financial health
6.1
Quality / Moat
6.2
Valuation
5.3
Growth
7.2
Dividend
6.0
Momentum
8.6
Risk & Context
7.2

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E14.60
Fwd P/E10.27
EV/EBITDA12.06
P/B3.24
P/S0.67
PEG0.82
Market cap102.54 B USD
Enterprise value119.71 B USD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)25.0%
Gross margin13.10%
FCF conversion46%
Operating margin8.53%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE23.45%
ROA6.04%
Net margin4.66%
FCF4.55 B USD
FCF yield4.43%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt20.57 B USD
Net debt16.47 B USD
Cash4.10 B USD
EBITDA9.93 B USD
Net debt / EBITDA1.66
D/E62.88
Current ratio1.32
Quick ratio0.86
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth53.10%
Earnings growth344.90%
EPS (TTM)17.52 USD
EPS (Fwd)24.91 USD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield1.99%
Payout28.2%
Beta0.70
Analyst consensusBuy (19)
Target price251.95 USD
52-week range126.74 USD – 277.12 USD
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is the normalization of refining margins from exceptional levels, which could significantly compress future earnings. The potential diesel export ban is an additional regulatory risk.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Phillips 66 is an integrated energy company operating in oil refining, marketing of refined products, and midstream logistics, generating revenue from the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petrochemical products. Phillips 66 shows strong momentum (80.15) and solid quality (ROE 23.45%), but its 344.9% earnings growth reflects a refining cycle peak that is not sustainable. Valuation is reasonable (P/E 14.60), although the rate environment and potential diesel export ban add risks.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health6.1
Quality / Moat6.2
Valuation5.3
Growth7.2
Dividend6.0
Momentum8.6
Risk & Context7.2

OVERALL SCORE: 6.4/10

Context and risks

Phillips 66 is a refiner, so expensive crude (WTI at 95.48 USD) compresses its refining margins if it cannot pass on costs to product prices. Additionally, the potential US diesel export ban is a direct regulatory risk that would limit its market.

News considered in the analysis

  • VLO, MPC, PSX Stocks, Diesel Futures Climb Overnight: Trump Says US ‘Very Seriously’ Considering Diesel Export Ban — Una posible prohibición de exportación de diésel limitaría el mercado para los productos refinados de PSX, presionando los márgenes de refino. Aunque es una amenaza especulativa, el impacto potencial es material.
  • Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock May Be Below Fair Value On Cash Flow — Artículo de análisis que sugiere que la acción está infravalorada según su flujo de caja, lo que podría atraer interés de compra.
  • Why These S&P 500 Stocks Are Earning The Biggest EPS Upgrades — PSX está recibiendo mejoras significativas en las estimaciones de BPA, lo que refleja un sentimiento positivo de los analistas.
  • Exchange-Traded Funds, Equity Futures Lower Pre-Bell Thursday Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions Before US-China Talks — Las tensiones en Oriente Medio aumentan la volatilidad del mercado, lo que puede afectar negativamente a las acciones de energía en el corto plazo.
  • How Bright is the Outlook for Par Pacific's Refining Business? — Noticia sobre un competidor (Par Pacific) sin impacto directo en PSX.

Verdict: Hold, with caution. The business is solid, but peak refining margins and regulatory risks limit upside potential.

Main risk: The main risk is the normalization of refining margins from exceptional levels, which could significantly compress future earnings. The potential diesel export ban is an additional regulatory risk.

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.