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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Neste NESTE.HE

Finland Energy
6.4/10
AI Analyst score
34.42 EUR
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 34.26 (-0.5%)
🛒 Where to buy NESTE.HEPartner brokers · Finland · sample 200.00 € orderFinland
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; quality and growth are solid, but exposure to refining margins and higher rates limits near-term upside.

Neste is a Finnish refinery leader in the production of renewable fuels and renewable product solutions, transforming its traditional oil business towards a more sustainable economy. Neste shows revenue growth of 32.7% and an ROIC of 24.11%, with momentum of 95.01% reflecting market confidence, but its refining business is sensitive to crude volatility and rising rates that make its debt more expensive (ND/EBITDA 1.33).

Financial health
6.8
Quality / Moat
6.1
Valuation
5.2
Growth
8.7
Dividend
3.0
Momentum
9.3
Risk & Context
7.8

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E17.38
Fwd P/E13.25
EV/EBITDA10.93
P/B3.13
P/S1.28
PEG0.32
Market cap26.44 B EUR
Enterprise value29.74 B EUR
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)24.1%
Gross margin20.01%
FCF conversion38%
Operating margin15.37%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE19.41%
ROA7.88%
Net margin7.36%
FCF1.05 B EUR
FCF yield3.95%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt4.70 B EUR
Net debt3.61 B EUR
Cash1.08 B EUR
EBITDA2.72 B EUR
Net debt / EBITDA1.33
D/E55.55
Current ratio1.80
Quick ratio0.70
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth32.70%
Earnings growthN/D
EPS (TTM)1.98 EUR
EPS (Fwd)2.58 EUR
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield0.58%
Payout10.1%
Beta0.58
Analyst consensusBuy (19)
Target price34.26 EUR
52-week range15.43 EUR – 35.94 EUR
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is refining margin compression if crude stays high or if de-escalation in Iran causes a sharp drop in prices, directly impacting its core business.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Neste is a Finnish refinery leader in the production of renewable fuels and renewable product solutions, transforming its traditional oil business towards a more sustainable economy. Neste shows revenue growth of 32.7% and an ROIC of 24.11%, with momentum of 95.01% reflecting market confidence, but its refining business is sensitive to crude volatility and rising rates that make its debt more expensive (ND/EBITDA 1.33).

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health6.8
Quality / Moat6.1
Valuation5.2
Growth8.7
Dividend3.0
Momentum9.3
Risk & Context7.8

OVERALL SCORE: 6.4/10

Context and risks

Neste is a refiner: expensive crude (WTI 95.48 USD) compresses its refining margin if not passed through, and the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields (5.17%) makes refinancing its debt (ND/EBITDA 1.33) more expensive. De-escalation in Iran adds downside volatility to crude, directly affecting its refining business.

News considered in the analysis

  • Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Put Valuation Back In Focus — Resultados que superan expectativas y guía para 2026 que reenfocan la valoración; noticia material y reciente, parcialmente descontada por el fuerte momentum.
  • Global oil stocks tumble as crude prices retreat after U.S. halts Iran strikes — La caída del crudo por la desescalada en Irán presiona el margen de refino de Neste, que compra crudo; efecto moderado y parcialmente descontado en la sesión.
  • PBF or NTOIY: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now? — Listículo comparativo genérico sin información nueva sobre Neste.
  • Energy & Utilities Roundup: Market Talk — Resumen de mercado sin información específica y accionable para Neste.
  • Is National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) Outperforming Other Oils-Energy Stocks This Year? — Artículo sobre otra empresa (NESR), sin relevancia para Neste.

Verdict: Hold; quality and growth are solid, but exposure to refining margins and higher rates limits near-term upside.

Main risk: The main risk is refining margin compression if crude stays high or if de-escalation in Iran causes a sharp drop in prices, directly impacting its core business.

Other Energy companies

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.