Starbucks SBUX
Starbucks is a global chain of coffee shops and beverage stores that operates and franchises establishments, generating revenue from the sale of coffee, drinks, and food, with a model based on brand experience and convenience. Starbucks shows strong momentum (8.28) and earnings growth of 85.70%, but financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 3.34, liquidity 0.76) and valuation is demanding (P/E 54.83) with declining revenue (-1.40%) and a 142.77% payout that puts the dividend at risk.
Detailed metrics
Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.
Full AI report
Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.
Starbucks is a global chain of coffee shops and beverage stores that operates and franchises establishments, generating revenue from the sale of coffee, drinks, and food, with a model based on brand experience and convenience. Starbucks shows strong momentum (8.28) and earnings growth of 85.70%, but financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 3.34, liquidity 0.76) and valuation is demanding (P/E 54.83) with declining revenue (-1.40%) and a 142.77% payout that puts the dividend at risk.
Score by category
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Financial health | 4.1 |
| Quality / Moat | 5.0 |
| Valuation | 3.7 |
| Growth | 6.5 |
| Dividend | 2.7 |
| Momentum | 8.3 |
| Risk & Context | 6.0 |
OVERALL SCORE: 5.1/10
Context and risks
The rise in 10-year Treasury yields (5.17%) makes refinancing net debt of 3.34x EBITDA more expensive, although Starbucks' discretionary consumer spending does not depend on oil. The main risk is pressure on US consumer discretionary spending, not a direct geopolitical factor.
News considered in the analysis
- Starbucks to Close Select North America Coffeehouses, Cuts Store Outlook — Cierre de 250 tiendas y recorte de la perspectiva de aperturas: impacto material en crecimiento y márgenes, parcialmente descontado por la cobertura reciente.
- Did your favorite local Starbucks just close? These 36 SoCal locations are likely shuttered — Cierres concretos en California, reflejo de la racionalización de la red; efecto moderado y ya en gran parte conocido.
- Starbucks rival cafe chain has closed 130 locations — Noticia sobre un competidor, sin impacto directo en los fundamentales de Starbucks.
- Starbucks Will Close 250 Stores. His $20,000 401(k) Loan Won’t Count Against Social Security’s Earnings Test, but It Could Make More of His Benefit Taxable — Titular clickbait que mezcla el cierre de tiendas con un tema de finanzas personales sin relación; sin información nueva.
- Why Starbucks Is Shutting Hundreds of Cafes in the Middle of a Comeback — Análisis que contextualiza los cierres dentro de la estrategia de recuperación; refuerza la visión de presión en ventas comparables.
Verdict: Hold; margin recovery and debt reduction are key before considering entry, given high leverage and demanding valuation.
Main risk: Leverage of 3.34x EBITDA with rates at 5.17% and a 142.77% payout: any weakness in comparable sales could force a dividend cut or a capital raise.
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