UPS UPS
UPS is one of the world's largest parcel delivery and logistics companies, operating an integrated ground, air, and sea transportation network to deliver packages and manage supply chains for businesses and consumers. UPS combines an ROE of 29.60% and an ROIC of 18.61% with an attractive valuation (forward P/E 11.64, FCF yield 7.00%), but earnings growth of -53% and a payout ratio of 121.93% point to a business under margin pressure with the dividend at risk.
Detailed metrics
Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.
Full AI report
Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.
UPS is one of the world's largest parcel delivery and logistics companies, operating an integrated ground, air, and sea transportation network to deliver packages and manage supply chains for businesses and consumers. UPS combines an ROE of 29.60% and an ROIC of 18.61% with an attractive valuation (forward P/E 11.64, FCF yield 7.00%), but earnings growth of -53% and a payout ratio of 121.93% point to a business under margin pressure with the dividend at risk.
Score by category
| Category | Score |
|---|---|
| Financial health | 4.8 |
| Quality / Moat | 6.4 |
| Valuation | 7.1 |
| Growth | 3.1 |
| Dividend | 4.5 |
| Momentum | 6.4 |
| Risk & Context | 5.7 |
OVERALL SCORE: 5.7/10
Context and risks
The crude rally raises fuel costs, a relevant expense for a ground and air transport network with a 9.05% operating margin. The 121.93% payout leaves no cushion to absorb that pressure, increasing the risk of a dividend cut.
News considered in the analysis
- Is UPS’s (UPS) Near-100% Payout Ratio Compatible With Margin Pressures From Rising Fuel Costs? — El payout del 121.93% ya es insostenible y el aumento del coste del combustible presiona un margen operativo ya estrecho del 9.05%, agravando el riesgo de recorte de dividendo.
- Carrier diversity key to holiday success in a high cost environment — Artículo sectorial genérico sin información nueva específica sobre UPS.
- Firms are keeping billions in tariff refunds. Fed study says only 15% plan to lower prices, including Walmart — Noticia sobre devoluciones arancelarias de terceros; sin impacto directo demostrable en UPS.
- Blink Charging, Astec, Lucid, United Parcel Service, and Graphic Packaging Holding Stocks Trade Down, What You Need To Know — Listículo de movimientos de mercado sin información fundamental nueva.
- Stock Market Midday, Sept. 24: Stocks Slide as Treasury Yields Climb, Oracle Declares Force Majeure — La subida de los rendimientos del Tesoro a 10 años (5.17%) presiona el valor presente de los flujos de UPS, aunque su PER de 17.46 limita el impacto por duración.
Verdict: Hold; the cheap valuation does not offset the earnings deterioration and dividend cut risk until the operating margin stabilizes.
Main risk: The 121.93% payout ratio with a 9.05% operating margin exposed to rising fuel costs: if crude keeps climbing, the 6.98% dividend is not sustainable.
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