ZTO Express ZTO
ChinaIndustrials · Integrated Freight & LogisticsUSD
27.83 USD (+40.5%)
18 analysts
Trading 2120.30 €Open account ↗
Lightyear0.90 €Open account ↗
N260.90 €Open account ↗
XTB1.00 €★ featured · affiliateOpen account ↗Trading 2120.30 €Open account ↗Lightyear0.90 €Open account ↗XTB1.00 €★ featured · affiliateOpen account ↗200.00 € order · cheapest cheapest available in your country iCompare all 22 brokers →What does it do?
ZTO Express is China's largest express parcel operator by volume, with a franchise model that allows it to scale with low fixed costs and generate above-average margins.
Key points
from its scores- ✓Strong growth8.4
- ✓Very solid balance sheet8.2
- ✓Attractive valuation8.2
- ✕Poor share-price trend4.0
- !Risks to watch5.2
AI analysis
bottom line, main risk, context and newsThe attractive valuation and clean balance sheet offset China's governance risk, but 58% profit growth is not sustainable long-term.
ZTO combines excellent financial health (net cash, DN/EBITDA of -0.62) with 23% revenue growth and a P/E of 10.82, leaving it in a strong competitive position, although 58% profit growth warrants moderating expectations.
The main risk is jurisdictional exposure to China: weak minority shareholder protection and potential regulatory intervention in the logistics sector could erode shareholder value despite strong fundamentals.
Context and risks
ZTO operates in China, where minority shareholder protection is weak and the state maintains regulatory influence over the logistics sector. Although the company is listed in the US and has net cash, jurisdictional exposure to China justifies a governance risk penalty.
Is ZTO Express stock cheap or expensive?
at the analysis dateOn P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 58% below the Industrials median on average.
| Multiple | Company | Sector | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.8 | 25.4 | −57% |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.0 | 14.5 | −58% |
| Price / book | 1.5 | 4.1 | −63% |
| Price / sales | 1.8 | 2.1 | −11% |
Sector: median of the 388 Industrials companies analysed. In bold, the multiples used for the comparison.
Valuation score: 8.2 out of 10 (median for Industrials: 5.0).
Average analyst target: 27.83 USD, +40.5% versus the price.
A discount may reflect more risk or slower growth than its sector: Financial health 8.2 (sector 6.4), Growth 8.4 (sector 6.6).
Classic formulas with standard assumptions (10.0% growth, 8-9% discount rate). Indicative only: they change a lot with the assumptions and are not a recommendation.
Work out its fair value yourself →How much would you have made investing every month? →
Comparing it with its sector does not say whether it is a good buy: this is not investment advice.
Score by category
0 to 10 · hover overtap each one to see what it measuresKey metrics
at the analysis date · compared with the Industrials medianValuation
- P/E
- 10.8
- Forward P/E
- 8.8
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.0
- Price / book
- 1.5
- Price / sales
- 1.8
- PEG
- 1.00
- Market cap
- 14.8B USD
- Enterprise value
- 90.0B CNY
Profitability
- ROE
- 16.3%
- ROA
- 7.4%
- ROIC (approx.)
- 13.6%
- Gross margin
- 25.1%
- Operating margin
- 22.2%
- Net margin
- 19.0%
- Free cash flow
- 6.4B CNY
- FCF yield
- 6.5%
- Cash conversion
- 43%
Solvency
- Total debt
- 22.0B CNY
- Net debt
- −9.3B CNY
- Cash
- 31.3B CNY
- EBITDA
- 14.9B CNY
- Net debt / EBITDA
- −0.62
- Debt / equity
- 34.58
- Current ratio
- 1.67
- Quick ratio
- 1.38
Growth
- Revenue growth
- +23.0%
- Earnings growth
- +58.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- 1.83 USD
- EPS (forward)
- 2.24 USD
Dividend
- Dividend yield
- 3.5%
- Payout
- 38.4%
Risk and market
- Beta
- −0.19
- Analyst consensus
- Buy (18)
- Target price
- 27.83 USD
- 52-week range
- 18.11 – 26.20
Recent news
All ZTO news →Compare it with its sector
All 388 in Industrials →Frequently asked questions about ZTO Express
Is ZTO Express stock cheap or expensive?
On P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 58% below the Industrials median on average. Valuation score: 8.2 out of 10 (median for Industrials: 5.0). Average analyst target: 27.83 USD, +40.5% versus the price. This is not investment advice.
What score does ZTO Express get on MeridIAn Screener?
It scores 6.8 out of 10, rank 358 of 2,130 (better than 83% of the companies analysed). Its strongest category is Growth (8.4) and its weakest, Momentum (4.0). Analysis of 08/10/2026.
What is ZTO Express's P/E ratio?
Its P/E is 10.8: the share price equals 10.8 times earnings per share over the last 12 months. The Industrials median is 25.4. Based on the earnings analysts expect, the forward P/E is 8.8.
How much is ZTO Express worth on the stock market?
Its market capitalisation is 14.8B USD and its enterprise value, debt included, is 90.0B USD.
How much debt does ZTO Express have?
It has more cash than debt: net cash of 9.3B CNY.
Does ZTO Express pay a dividend?
Yes: its dividend yield is 3.48% and it pays out 38% of its earnings.
How has ZTO Express stock performed over the last year?
It has risen 8.4% over the last year, excluding dividends. Over the last 52 weeks it has traded between 18.11 and 26.20 USD. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What do analysts think of ZTO Express?
18 analysts cover it; their average recommendation is “Buy” and their average target is 27.83 USD (+40.5% versus the price). It is an estimate, not market data.