⚠️ Not investment advice. This is a quantitative research tool; every decision is the user's own responsibility. Past performance does not guarantee future results.⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Japan Tobacco 2914.T

Japan Consumer Defensive
7.2/10
AI Analyst score
6,850.00 JPY
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 7,285.92 (+6.4%)
🛒 Where to buy 2914.TJapan
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🟡 HOLD — Hold or accumulate on dips; the combination of growth, attractive dividend and sound balance sheet offsets the sector's regulatory risk.

Japan Tobacco is a Japanese conglomerate dedicated to the manufacture and sale of tobacco products (cigarettes, rolling tobacco, heated tobacco products) and, to a lesser extent, food and pharmaceutical products, with a strong international presence. Japan Tobacco shows solid fundamentals: operating margin of 31.74%, ROIC of 19.44% and net debt/EBITDA of only 0.71, with earnings growth of 44.6% supporting its international expansion. Valuation (P/E 20.43) is reasonable for the quality of the business, although cash conversion (21.66%) is a weak point to watch.

Financial health
8.2
Quality / Moat
6.3
Valuation
5.4
Growth
8.3
Dividend
6.8
Momentum
8.8
Risk & Context
9.1

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E20.43
Fwd P/E22.75
EV/EBITDA11.07
P/B2.77
P/S3.27
PEG1.09
Market cap12.16 T JPY
Enterprise value13.20 T JPY
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)19.4%
Gross margin56.86%
FCF conversion22%
Operating margin31.74%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE14.30%
ROA7.41%
Net margin16.73%
FCF258.37 B JPY
FCF yield2.12%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt1.68 T JPY
Net debt848.86 B JPY
Cash827.91 B JPY
EBITDA1.19 T JPY
Net debt / EBITDA0.71
D/E37.91
Current ratio2.04
Quick ratio0.84
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth17.00%
Earnings growth44.60%
EPS (TTM)335.35 JPY
EPS (Fwd)301.11 JPY
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield3.97%
Payout79.2%
Beta0.15
Analyst consensusBuy (13)
Target price7,285.92 JPY
52-week range4,748.00 JPY – 7,218.00 JPY
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is regulatory: higher excise taxes, advertising restrictions and plain packaging in its key markets (Japan, Europe) could compress margins and volume, a structural risk that no financial ratio captures.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Japan Tobacco is a Japanese conglomerate dedicated to the manufacture and sale of tobacco products (cigarettes, rolling tobacco, heated tobacco products) and, to a lesser extent, food and pharmaceutical products, with a strong international presence. Japan Tobacco shows solid fundamentals: operating margin of 31.74%, ROIC of 19.44% and net debt/EBITDA of only 0.71, with earnings growth of 44.6% supporting its international expansion. Valuation (P/E 20.43) is reasonable for the quality of the business, although cash conversion (21.66%) is a weak point to watch.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health8.2
Quality / Moat6.3
Valuation5.4
Growth8.3
Dividend6.8
Momentum8.8
Risk & Context9.1

OVERALL SCORE: 7.2/10

Context and risks

Structural regulatory risk of the tobacco sector (plain packaging, excise taxes, advertising restrictions) in its key markets, Japan and Europe. The country of domicile (Japan) adds a moderate governance risk already reflected in the reference.

News considered in the analysis

  • JAPAN TOB (JAPAY) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know — Upgrade de analista a Comprar; refuerza la tesis pero no aporta información fundamental nueva.
  • Is Bunzl (BZLFY) Outperforming Other Consumer Staples Stocks This Year? — Listículo comparativo de un competidor sin información sobre Japan Tobacco.
  • Bear of the Day: Turning Point Brands (TPB) — Noticia sobre un competidor pequeño; sin impacto directo en Japan Tobacco.
  • Altria Group (MO): A Winner in President Trump’s Stock Portfolio? — Ruido sobre otro competidor; sin relevancia para Japan Tobacco.
  • Altria vs. Turning Point Brands: Which Tobacco Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026? — Comparativa genérica entre competidores; sin información nueva sobre Japan Tobacco.

Verdict: Hold or accumulate on dips; the combination of growth, attractive dividend and sound balance sheet offsets the sector's regulatory risk.

Main risk: The main risk is regulatory: higher excise taxes, advertising restrictions and plain packaging in its key markets (Japan, Europe) could compress margins and volume, a structural risk that no financial ratio captures.

Other Consumer Defensive companies

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.