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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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ERG ERG.MI

Italy Utilities
5.2/10
AI Analyst score
22.62 EUR
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 24.69 (+9.1%)
🛒 Where to buy ERG.MIPartner brokers · Italy · sample 200.00 € orderItaly
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; wait for debt reduction or a sustainable payout before considering entry.

ERG is an Italian utility focused on renewable energy (wind, solar, and hydroelectric), generating revenue by selling electricity and managing generation assets. ERG shows acceptable financial health (score 7.51) but with high debt (ND/EBITDA 4.13) and weak quality (ROE 4.06, ROIC 5.22); its valuation is demanding (P/E 39.68) and the dividend is over-distributed (payout 176.68%), limiting its appeal.

Financial health
6.9
Quality / Moat
4.8
Valuation
4.8
Dividend
3.9
Momentum
5.3
Risk & Context
4.9

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E39.68
Fwd P/E18.89
EV/EBITDA10.41
P/B1.74
P/S4.24
PEG0.94
Market cap3.29 B EUR
Enterprise value5.56 B EUR
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)5.2%
Gross margin75.93%
FCF conversion37%
Operating margin30.76%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE4.06%
ROA2.99%
Net margin6.62%
FCF199.8 M EUR
FCF yield6.08%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt2.67 B EUR
Net debt2.21 B EUR
Cash467.2 M EUR
EBITDA534.2 M EUR
Net debt / EBITDA4.13
D/E137.03
Current ratio1.65
Quick ratio1.49
🚀 Growth
Revenue growthN/D
Earnings growthN/D
EPS (TTM)0.57 EUR
EPS (Fwd)1.20 EUR
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield4.42%
Payout176.7%
Beta0.69
Analyst consensusBuy (7)
Target price24.69 EUR
52-week range20.40 EUR – 26.18 EUR
⚠️ Main risk: High leverage (ND/EBITDA 4.13) combined with a 176.68% payout makes the dividend dependent on debt, vulnerable to rising rates and a potential cut.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

ERG is an Italian utility focused on renewable energy (wind, solar, and hydroelectric), generating revenue by selling electricity and managing generation assets. ERG shows acceptable financial health (score 7.51) but with high debt (ND/EBITDA 4.13) and weak quality (ROE 4.06, ROIC 5.22); its valuation is demanding (P/E 39.68) and the dividend is over-distributed (payout 176.68%), limiting its appeal.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health6.9
Quality / Moat4.8
Valuation4.8
Dividend3.9
Momentum5.3
Risk & Context4.9

OVERALL SCORE: 5.2/10

Context and risks

Italy presents weak institutional governance and limited minority protection, adding regulatory and political intervention risk in the energy sector. Additionally, high debt (ND/EBITDA 4.13) and a high P/E (39.68) make ERG vulnerable to rising rates, although its renewable business has regulated revenues.

News considered in the analysis

  • ERG SpA (FRA:ER9) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Solid H1 Results and Strategic PPA Signal ... — Resultados sólidos y señal estratégica de PPA, refuerzan la visibilidad de ingresos futuros, aunque ya parcialmente reflejado en el precio.
  • ERG SpA (STU:ER9) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Market Challenges — Crecimiento de EBITDA en un entorno difícil, positivo pero ya conocido por el mercado.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Pandora Ranked Most Sustainable Consumer Brand — Noticia sobre otra empresa, sin impacto en ERG.
  • ERG SpA (FRA:ER9) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth Amid Strategic Investments — Resultados antiguos, ya descontados por el mercado.
  • A Closer Look at ERG (BIT:ERG) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Surge — Análisis de valoración sin información nueva relevante.

Verdict: Hold; wait for debt reduction or a sustainable payout before considering entry.

Main risk: High leverage (ND/EBITDA 4.13) combined with a 176.68% payout makes the dividend dependent on debt, vulnerable to rising rates and a potential cut.

Other Utilities companies

Neighbours in the sector ranking, to compare without going back to the index.

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.