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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Harmony Gold Mining HMY

South Africa Basic Materials
7.0/10
AI Analyst score
18.97 USD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 21.52 (+13.4%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; valuation is attractive but cycle and governance risks limit upside potential.

Harmony Gold Mining is a South African gold mining company with operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea, selling its production on the global market at market prices. Harmony Gold shows exceptional fundamentals (ROE 48.05%, operating margin 47.17%, P/E 6.73), but its 198.8% earnings growth is clearly at a gold cycle peak, with the metal price falling and elevated governance risk in South Africa.

Financial health
8.2
Quality / Moat
7.7
Valuation
8.1
Growth
7.1
Dividend
6.6
Momentum
4.9
Risk & Context
4.4

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E6.73
Fwd P/E5.79
EV/EBITDA4.34
P/B4.79
P/S1.97
PEG0.03
Market cap11.88 B USD
Enterprise value196.19 B ZAR
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)93.2%
Gross margin49.62%
FCF conversion22%
Operating margin47.17%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE48.05%
ROA25.06%
Net margin29.57%
FCF9.85 B ZAR
FCF yield5.04%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt9.48 B ZAR
Net debt852.0 M ZAR
Cash8.62 B ZAR
EBITDA45.23 B ZAR
Net debt / EBITDA0.02
D/E12.57
Current ratio0.84
Quick ratio0.60
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth49.20%
Earnings growth198.80%
EPS (TTM)2.85 USD
EPS (Fwd)3.27 USD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield4.11%
Payout14.9%
Beta0.81
Analyst consensusBuy (3)
Target price21.52 USD
52-week range13.03 USD – 26.06 USD
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is a fall in the gold price, which would reverse record margins and earnings growth, compounded by governance risk in South Africa.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Harmony Gold Mining is a South African gold mining company with operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea, selling its production on the global market at market prices. Harmony Gold shows exceptional fundamentals (ROE 48.05%, operating margin 47.17%, P/E 6.73), but its 198.8% earnings growth is clearly at a gold cycle peak, with the metal price falling and elevated governance risk in South Africa.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health8.2
Quality / Moat7.7
Valuation8.1
Growth7.1
Dividend6.6
Momentum4.9
Risk & Context4.4

OVERALL SCORE: 7.0/10

Context and risks

Elevated governance risk in South Africa, with a history of state intervention and weak minority protection. Additionally, the recent gold price drop and geopolitical volatility directly affect its main product.

News considered in the analysis

  • Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd (HMY) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and ... — Resultados récord impulsados por el alto precio del oro, ya reflejados parcialmente en las notas cuantitativas.
  • Harmony Gold’s Earnings Rise on Higher Gold Prices — Confirma la tendencia de beneficios al alza por el entorno del oro.
  • Harmony Gold Mining H2 Earnings Call Highlights — Detalles de la llamada de resultados, sin información nueva material.
  • Why Harmony Gold Mining Stock Plummeted by Almost 12% This Week — Caída semanal significativa, probablemente por la caída del precio del oro y toma de beneficios.
  • Harmony Gold (HMY) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know — Upgrade de analista, refuerza la visión positiva pero sin impacto fundamental nuevo.

Verdict: Hold; valuation is attractive but cycle and governance risks limit upside potential.

Main risk: The main risk is a fall in the gold price, which would reverse record margins and earnings growth, compounded by governance risk in South Africa.

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.