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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Lumentum Holdings LITE

United States Technology
5.8/10
AI Analyst score
941.65 USD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 1,149.38 (+22.1%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold, with caution: growth is real, but the valuation already discounts a very optimistic scenario and the risk of a correction is high.

Lumentum Holdings is a manufacturer of high-tech optical and photonic products, including lasers, components, and modules for communications networks, especially for data centers and artificial intelligence applications. Lumentum benefits from the AI boom with 109.30% revenue growth and strong momentum (456.77% in 12 months), but its valuation is extremely demanding (EV/EBITDA of 104.16) and its quality is poor (ROE of -240.03), making it vulnerable to a correction if the AI cycle moderates.

Financial health
8.2
Quality / Moat
4.6
Valuation
3.8
Growth
9.5
Dividend
1.5
Momentum
9.8
Risk & Context
3.3

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/EN/D
Fwd P/E27.28
EV/EBITDA104.16
P/B17.97
P/S28.02
PEG0.63
Market cap84.47 B USD
Enterprise value83.40 B USD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)13.2%
Gross margin44.24%
FCF conversion28%
Operating margin27.95%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE-240.03%
ROA5.82%
Net margin-230.10%
FCF224.7 M USD
FCF yield0.27%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt1.67 B USD
Net debt-1.07 B USD
Cash2.74 B USD
EBITDA800.7 M USD
Net debt / EBITDA-1.33
D/E35.99
Current ratio1.68
Quick ratio1.32
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth109.30%
Earnings growthN/D
EPS (TTM)-92.94 USD
EPS (Fwd)34.52 USD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield0.00%
Payout0.0%
Beta1.54
Analyst consensusStrong buy (26)
Target price1,149.38 USD
52-week range147.81 USD – 1,085.68 USD
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is the extreme valuation (EV/EBITDA of 104.16) combined with dependence on the AI capex cycle, which could slow if hyperscalers cut investments or if export restrictions to China limit its market.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Lumentum Holdings is a manufacturer of high-tech optical and photonic products, including lasers, components, and modules for communications networks, especially for data centers and artificial intelligence applications. Lumentum benefits from the AI boom with 109.30% revenue growth and strong momentum (456.77% in 12 months), but its valuation is extremely demanding (EV/EBITDA of 104.16) and its quality is poor (ROE of -240.03), making it vulnerable to a correction if the AI cycle moderates.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health8.2
Quality / Moat4.6
Valuation3.8
Growth9.5
Dividend1.5
Momentum9.8
Risk & Context3.3

OVERALL SCORE: 5.8/10

Context and risks

Lumentum operates in the semiconductor and optical technology sector, directly affected by geopolitical tensions between the US and China and by doubts about AI security, which are weighing on technology stocks. Additionally, its high beta (3.77) amplifies volatility in response to any macro or geopolitical news.

News considered in the analysis

  • AI Trade Picks Up Again as Investors Pile Back Into Stocks — El renovado apetito por valores de IA apoya la demanda de componentes ópticos de Lumentum, aunque el sentimiento ya está parcialmente reflejado en el fuerte rally de la acción.
  • LITE Stock Has Run 450% In 12 Months: Ritholtz Wealth CEO Thinks There Is Room For More — Comentario positivo de un gestor conocido sobre el potencial de la acción, pero es opinión y no un hecho fundamental; el rally ya está en el precio.
  • Coherent Has Ripped 59% in 2026: Is It Too Late to Buy COHR Stock Now? — Noticia sobre un competidor directo; no aporta información nueva sobre Lumentum.
  • Applied Optoelectronics Rides on AI Boom: Can It Beat LITE and FN? — Comparativa genérica entre competidores del sector; sin información específica sobre Lumentum.
  • AI Data Center Boom Faces This 'Fundamental Trade-Off' With China — Las restricciones a la exportación de tecnología a China podrían limitar el mercado direccionable de Lumentum, aunque su exposición a China no está cuantificada en los datos disponibles.

Verdict: Hold, with caution: growth is real, but the valuation already discounts a very optimistic scenario and the risk of a correction is high.

Main risk: The main risk is the extreme valuation (EV/EBITDA of 104.16) combined with dependence on the AI capex cycle, which could slow if hyperscalers cut investments or if export restrictions to China limit its market.

Other Technology companies

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.