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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Lundin Gold LUG.TO

Canada Basic Materials
7.0/10
AI Analyst score
91.59 CAD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 95.78 (+4.6%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; the quality is undeniable, but jurisdictional risk and an unsustainable payout warrant caution.

Lundin Gold is a Canadian miner operating the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador, one of the world's highest-grade gold deposits, selling its production on the global market. Lundin Gold shows exceptional financial health (net cash, 66.45% operating margin) and very high return on capital (101.20% ROE), but its 102.60% payout and dependence on a single mine in Ecuador limit its appeal.

Financial health
9.1
Quality / Moat
9.3
Valuation
6.6
Growth
6.1
Dividend
5.8
Momentum
6.3
Risk & Context
3.5

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E16.87
Fwd P/E15.11
EV/EBITDA10.48
P/B11.47
P/S7.75
PEG1.24
Market cap22.15 B CAD
Enterprise value15.17 B USD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)96.5%
Gross margin77.66%
FCF conversion69%
Operating margin66.45%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE101.20%
ROA51.00%
Net margin46.32%
FCF999.3 M USD
FCF yield6.39%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt26.4 M USD
Net debt-480.8 M USD
Cash507.1 M USD
EBITDA1.45 B USD
Net debt / EBITDA-0.33
D/E4.84
Current ratio2.27
Quick ratio1.95
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth5.50%
Earnings growth12.20%
EPS (TTM)5.43 CAD
EPS (Fwd)6.06 CAD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield6.45%
Payout102.6%
Beta1.52
Analyst consensusHold (13)
Target price95.78 CAD
52-week range71.51 CAD – 124.15 CAD
⚠️ Main risk: Dependence on a single mine (Fruta del Norte) in Ecuador, with regulatory and fiscal risk that could impact cash generation and the dividend.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Lundin Gold is a Canadian miner operating the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador, one of the world's highest-grade gold deposits, selling its production on the global market. Lundin Gold shows exceptional financial health (net cash, 66.45% operating margin) and very high return on capital (101.20% ROE), but its 102.60% payout and dependence on a single mine in Ecuador limit its appeal.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health9.1
Quality / Moat9.3
Valuation6.6
Growth6.1
Dividend5.8
Momentum6.3
Risk & Context3.5

OVERALL SCORE: 7.0/10

Context and risks

Jurisdictional risk from operating in Ecuador, a country with a history of regulatory instability and fiscal pressure on mining. Although the Fruta del Norte mine is world-class, the risk of changes to the rules of the game is material.

News considered in the analysis

  • Lundin Gold Reports High-Grade Drill Results at Bonza Sur, Identifies New Epithermal Vein System — Resultados de perforación de alta ley en una zona nueva pueden extender la vida de la mina, pero es una noticia de exploración en fase temprana.
  • Lundin Gold And 2 Canadian Quality Stocks To Own — Listículo genérico sin información nueva.
  • Lundin Gold Inc's Dividend Analysis — Análisis de dividendo sin información nueva.
  • Lundin Gold Heads These 3 Top Canadian Quality Stocks — Listículo genérico sin información nueva.
  • Lundin Gold Q2 Earnings Call Highlights — Resumen de resultados ya conocidos y descontados.

Verdict: Hold; the quality is undeniable, but jurisdictional risk and an unsustainable payout warrant caution.

Main risk: Dependence on a single mine (Fruta del Norte) in Ecuador, with regulatory and fiscal risk that could impact cash generation and the dividend.

Other Basic Materials companies

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.