Toll Brothers TOL
United StatesConsumer Cyclical · Residential ConstructionUSD
170.88 USD (+27.7%)
17 analysts
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Toll Brothers is the largest luxury homebuilder in the United States, designing and constructing single-family homes, townhouses, and high-end residential communities in major markets across the country.
Key points
from its scores- ✓Attractive valuation7.9
- ✓Very solid balance sheet7.1
- ✕Weak growth1.0
- ✕Little or no dividend3.3
- ✕Unfavourable risk and backdrop4.8
AI analysis
bottom line, main risk, context and newsThe attractive valuation does not offset the current contraction in the business, and the high interest rate environment could prolong weakness in luxury housing demand.
Toll Brothers trades at a P/E of 10.79 with a healthy balance sheet (Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.10), but the -9.70% decline in revenue and -20.40% decline in earnings reflect a business in the midst of a cyclical slowdown, which justifies the low growth score (1.54) and limits the appeal of its seemingly cheap valuation.
The main risk is sensitivity to mortgage rates: with the 10-year Treasury at 5.28%, demand for luxury homes could continue to weaken, prolonging the decline in revenue and earnings.
Context and risks
No relevant recent news.
Is Toll Brothers stock cheap or expensive?
at the analysis dateOn P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 32% below the Consumer Cyclical median on average.
| Multiple | Company | Sector | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.8 | 17.8 | −40% |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.4 | 11.2 | −25% |
| Price / book | 1.4 | 2.9 | −50% |
| Price / sales | 1.1 | 1.3 | −9% |
Sector: median of the 228 Consumer Cyclical companies analysed. In bold, the multiples used for the comparison.
Valuation score: 7.9 out of 10 (median for Consumer Cyclical: 6.6).
Average analyst target: 170.88 USD, +27.7% versus the price.
A discount may reflect more risk or slower growth than its sector: Financial health 7.1 (sector 5.7), Growth 1.0 (sector 5.9).
Classic formulas with standard assumptions (10.0% growth, 8-9% discount rate). Indicative only: they change a lot with the assumptions and are not a recommendation.
Work out its fair value yourself →How much would you have made investing every month? →
Comparing it with its sector does not say whether it is a good buy: this is not investment advice.
Score by category
0 to 10 · hover overtap each one to see what it measuresKey metrics
at the analysis date · compared with the Consumer Cyclical medianValuation
- P/E
- 10.8
- Forward P/E
- 9.7
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.4
- Price / book
- 1.4
- Price / sales
- 1.1
- PEG
- 0.89
- Market cap
- 12.3B USD
- Enterprise value
- 14.2B USD
Profitability
- ROE
- 14.4%
- ROA
- 6.9%
- ROIC (approx.)
- 13.7%
- Gross margin
- 24.8%
- Operating margin
- 14.6%
- Net margin
- 11.1%
- Free cash flow
- 557.7M USD
- FCF yield
- 4.5%
- Cash conversion
- 33%
Solvency
- Total debt
- 2.9B USD
- Net debt
- 1.9B USD
- Cash
- 1.1B USD
- EBITDA
- 1.7B USD
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.10
- Debt / equity
- 34.10
- Current ratio
- 4.50
- Quick ratio
- 0.41
Growth
- Revenue growth
- −9.7%
- Earnings growth
- −20.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- 12.41 USD
- EPS (forward)
- 13.82 USD
Dividend
- Dividend yield
- 0.8%
- Payout
- 8.2%
Risk and market
- Beta
- 1.30
- Analyst consensus
- Buy (17)
- Target price
- 170.88 USD
- 52-week range
- 123.15 – 168.36
Recent news
All TOL news →Compare it with its sector
All 228 in Consumer Cyclical →Frequently asked questions about Toll Brothers
Is Toll Brothers stock cheap or expensive?
On P/E and EV / EBITDA, it trades 32% below the Consumer Cyclical median on average. Valuation score: 7.9 out of 10 (median for Consumer Cyclical: 6.6). Average analyst target: 170.88 USD, +27.7% versus the price. This is not investment advice.
What score does Toll Brothers get on MeridIAn Screener?
It scores 5.5 out of 10, rank 1,440 of 2,130 (better than 32% of the companies analysed). Its strongest category is Valuation (7.9) and its weakest, Growth (1.0). Analysis of 08/10/2026.
What is Toll Brothers's P/E ratio?
Its P/E is 10.8: the share price equals 10.8 times earnings per share over the last 12 months. The Consumer Cyclical median is 17.8. Based on the earnings analysts expect, the forward P/E is 9.7.
How much is Toll Brothers worth on the stock market?
Its market capitalisation is 12.3B USD and its enterprise value, debt included, is 14.2B USD.
How much debt does Toll Brothers have?
Its net debt (debt minus cash) is 1.9B USD. That is 1.10 times its EBITDA; the Consumer Cyclical median is 1.91.
Does Toll Brothers pay a dividend?
Yes: its dividend yield is 0.78% and it pays out 8% of its earnings.
How has Toll Brothers stock performed over the last year?
It has risen 5.8% over the last year, excluding dividends. Over the last 52 weeks it has traded between 123.15 and 168.36 USD. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What do analysts think of Toll Brothers?
17 analysts cover it; their average recommendation is “Buy” and their average target is 170.88 USD (+27.7% versus the price). It is an estimate, not market data.