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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Woolworths Group WOW.AX

Australia Consumer Defensive
5.6/10
AI Analyst score
38.86 AUD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 39.32 (+1.2%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; business quality and momentum are attractive, but leverage and regulatory risk limit upside at these valuation levels.

Woolworths Group is one of Australia's largest supermarket chains, with a business model focused on food retail and everyday consumer goods. Woolworths shows strong momentum (9.17) and solid quality (ROE 23.34%), but its financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 4.30, current ratio 0.56) and the 239% earnings growth is not sustainable; the price-gouging ban adds regulatory pressure on an already thin operating margin of 3.83%.

Financial health
2.1
Quality / Moat
6.2
Valuation
4.2
Growth
6.9
Dividend
4.1
Momentum
9.2
Risk & Context
8.7

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E42.24
Fwd P/E23.97
EV/EBITDA17.79
P/B9.88
P/S0.66
PEG2.16
Market cap47.47 B AUD
Enterprise value62.00 B AUD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)12.9%
Gross margin27.35%
FCF conversion62%
Operating margin3.83%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE23.34%
ROA3.97%
Net margin1.59%
FCF2.16 B AUD
FCF yield4.56%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt16.48 B AUD
Net debt14.98 B AUD
Cash1.50 B AUD
EBITDA3.49 B AUD
Net debt / EBITDA4.30
D/E335.58
Current ratio0.56
Quick ratio0.19
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth3.80%
Earnings growth239.30%
EPS (TTM)0.92 AUD
EPS (Fwd)1.62 AUD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield2.50%
Payout97.3%
Beta0.26
Analyst consensusnone (15)
Target price39.32 AUD
52-week range25.51 AUD – 41.19 AUD
⚠️ Main risk: High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA 4.30) combined with Australia's regulatory ban on price-gouging, which could further compress the 3.83% operating margin.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

Woolworths Group is one of Australia's largest supermarket chains, with a business model focused on food retail and everyday consumer goods. Woolworths shows strong momentum (9.17) and solid quality (ROE 23.34%), but its financial health is fragile (ND/EBITDA 4.30, current ratio 0.56) and the 239% earnings growth is not sustainable; the price-gouging ban adds regulatory pressure on an already thin operating margin of 3.83%.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health2.1
Quality / Moat6.2
Valuation4.2
Growth6.9
Dividend4.1
Momentum9.2
Risk & Context8.7

OVERALL SCORE: 5.6/10

Context and risks

Regulatory risk in Australia: price-gouging ban since July and political scrutiny over the market power of major chains. Woolworths' operating margin (3.83%) is thin, amplifying the impact of any pricing restrictions.

News considered in the analysis

  • Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) Could Be 2% Below Fair Value After Supply Chain Focus — Análisis de valoración de terceros sin información nueva material.
  • Construction starts on $568m Aura Tower at Southbank’s Melbourne Square — Proyecto inmobiliario no relacionado con el negocio principal de supermercados.
  • Woolworths Group Ltd (WOLWF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth and Profit ... — Resultados con fuerte crecimiento de beneficios (239%) y ventas, aunque el mercado ya lo ha descontado parcialmente.
  • Coles and Woolworths test facial recognition to address store crime – report — Prueba de tecnología para reducir hurtos; impacto incierto y limitado.
  • Australia bans supermarket price-gouging from July — Prohibición de sobreprecios: riesgo regulatorio directo sobre el margen operativo (3.83%), ya anunciado y parcialmente descontado.

Verdict: Hold; business quality and momentum are attractive, but leverage and regulatory risk limit upside at these valuation levels.

Main risk: High leverage (Net Debt/EBITDA 4.30) combined with Australia's regulatory ban on price-gouging, which could further compress the 3.83% operating margin.

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.