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⚠️ Not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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J.M. Smucker SJM

United States Consumer Defensive
5.8/10
AI Analyst score
121.00 USD
Last price at analysis date · analyst target 142.12 (+17.5%)
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🟡 HOLD — Hold; the forward P/E valuation is attractive, but high leverage and an unsustainable payout limit upside potential.

The J.M. Smucker Company is a packaged foods company that manufactures and markets brands such as Smucker's, Folgers, Jif, and Milk-Bone, selling through supermarkets and retail stores. Smucker shows a tight financial health (ND/EBITDA of 3.05, payout of 205.61%) which the market discounts with a forward P/E of 11.08, but its strong cash generation (FCF yield of 11.33%) and solid operating margin of 17.90% provide some cushion.

Financial health
4.8
Quality / Moat
5.5
Valuation
5.6
Growth
5.6
Dividend
3.4
Momentum
7.9
Risk & Context
8.6

Detailed metrics

Market and fundamental data as of the analysis date.

💵 Valuation
P/E56.81
Fwd P/E11.08
EV/EBITDA8.76
P/B2.25
P/S1.41
PEG2.17
Market cap12.93 B USD
Enterprise value19.82 B USD
🏰 Quality and moat
ROIC (approx.)12.9%
Gross margin37.95%
FCF conversion65%
Operating margin17.90%
📈 Profitability and margins
ROE3.93%
ROA6.26%
Net margin2.51%
FCF1.46 B USD
FCF yield11.33%
🏦 Solvency and liquidity
Total debt6.94 B USD
Net debt6.90 B USD
Cash43.2 M USD
EBITDA2.26 B USD
Net debt / EBITDA3.05
D/E120.68
Current ratio0.87
Quick ratio0.29
🚀 Growth
Revenue growth5.00%
Earnings growthN/D
EPS (TTM)2.14 USD
EPS (Fwd)10.92 USD
💰 Dividend and risk
Dividend yield3.70%
Payout205.6%
Beta0.26
Analyst consensusBuy (16)
Target price142.12 USD
52-week range88.25 USD – 135.89 USD
⚠️ Main risk: The main risk is high leverage (ND/EBITDA of 3.05) combined with a payout of 205.61%, which could force a dividend cut or a capital raise if the high-rate environment persists.
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Full AI report

Generated automatically from the metrics, the macro context and the company's news.

The J.M. Smucker Company is a packaged foods company that manufactures and markets brands such as Smucker's, Folgers, Jif, and Milk-Bone, selling through supermarkets and retail stores. Smucker shows a tight financial health (ND/EBITDA of 3.05, payout of 205.61%) which the market discounts with a forward P/E of 11.08, but its strong cash generation (FCF yield of 11.33%) and solid operating margin of 17.90% provide some cushion.

Score by category

CategoryScore
Financial health4.8
Quality / Moat5.5
Valuation5.6
Growth5.6
Dividend3.4
Momentum7.9
Risk & Context8.6

OVERALL SCORE: 5.8/10

Context and risks

The rise in US rates (10-year at 5.17%) is a relevant factor for SJM due to its high leverage (ND/EBITDA of 3.05) and high payout (205.61%), which makes debt service more expensive and pressures cash generation to maintain the dividend.

News considered in the analysis

  • Why Is Smucker (SJM) Down 7.7% Since Last Earnings Report? — La caída post-resultados refleja la preocupación del mercado por el alto payout y el apalancamiento, aunque la noticia es de hace semanas y parte del movimiento ya está en el precio.
  • J. M. Smucker (SJM) Stock Looks Stretched After Its 27% Run — Artículo de opinión que señala una posible sobrevaloración tras la fuerte subida; es una advertencia cualitativa, no un hecho material.
  • 1 Consumer Stock to Target This Week and 2 We Question — Listículo sin información nueva sobre la empresa.
  • 3 US Consumer Staples Stocks To Watch As Inflation Squeezes Shoppers — Comparativa genérica del sector sin datos específicos de SJM.
  • Is J. M. Smucker Stock Outperforming the S&P 500? — Análisis de rendimiento relativo sin información nueva sobre fundamentales.

Verdict: Hold; the forward P/E valuation is attractive, but high leverage and an unsustainable payout limit upside potential.

Main risk: The main risk is high leverage (ND/EBITDA of 3.05) combined with a payout of 205.61%, which could force a dividend cut or a capital raise if the high-rate environment persists.

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Automatically generated analysis from fundamental, market and news data. Not personalised financial advice — a research tool, not an individual recommendation. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Last update of this analysis: 2026-09-28. Legal notice, privacy & cookies.